The cannabis industry is waiting and wondering if the Nov 8 election will lead to champagne showers and celebratory toasts or widespread heartache and disappointment.
Judging by the latest round of polling data, there’s reason to be optimistic – though cannabis executives might want to keep the bubbly on ice for now.
According to an average of all October polling data, the odds of success is a essentially a coin flip. Support in most states is hovering around the threshold needed to pass and well within the margin of error; Tuesday could be a nail-biter.
Even though many Americans support the legalization of marijuana, these findings illustrate just how contentious the issue remains at the state level.
Florida appears to have the best chance of success. Despite the more than $3 million raised by state ballot committees in opposition to a medical marijuana legalization measure on the ballot, support for the proposal is approaching 75% – well above the 60% needed to pass.
Nearly $20 million has been raised by ballot committees supporting marijuana legalization in California – more than any other state voting on marijuana legalization this year – and support for the initiative is at 55% as of today November 7, a day before the election. Support has ranged from 51% to 60%, so the race could be closer than initially expected.
An average of two October polls in Massachusetts shows support for recreational legalization above the 50% mark. However, one shows the initiative passing while the other shows it failing by a slim margin.
The Republican governor of Massachusetts and the Democratic mayor of Boston have both come out against legalization, and a recent $850,000 donation by the Boston Archdiocese of the Catholic Church ensures the measure will be hotly contested come election night.
Only one October poll regarding Maine’s recreational marijuana legalization ballot initiative has been released, and it indicates voters are split on the measure, despite the massive funding disparity in favor of legalization supporters.
Nevada is home of the largest individual contributor to ballot committees in opposition to marijuana legalization. Two polls taken in late October show support for a recreational marijuana legalization right at 50%.
Like the situation in Massachusetts, one poll puts support at 47% while the other has it at 53%.
Support for Arizona’s recreational marijuana legalization ballot initiative comes in below 50%. This uses an average of three October polls; two of which show the measure passing with approximately 50% of the vote while the other fails with 44%.
One of the largest medical marijuana markets in the nation, Arizona has seen a number of business, including high-profile names like U-Haul, come out against marijuana legalization and make donations to groups fighting it.
In Arkansas – where the state Supreme Court disqualified one of two medical cannabis legalization ballot initiatives – support for legalization is underwater. It was once thought that two competing initiatives could split support and cause both to fail, but it’s now plausible the remaining initiative may be unsuccessful on its own.
An October poll in Montana showed support for an initiative to legalize MMJ dispensaries and commercial cultivation operations at 44%.
North Dakota also has a medical marijuana legalization initiative on the ballot this year. However, the latest polling data is from 2014, where 47% of respondents supported the legalization of medical marijuana.
As of now Florida looks like it will pass as 75% of the vote to be legal for MMJ passes. As for my fellow cannabis trimmers, we will just have to wait a couple more days!
Stay tuned!
Michael Garay ~